Thoughts on Widespread Unemployment and what the Indian Government Could Do About it - Views Not Based on Statistical Analysis!

During a recent conversation, a friend mentioned that his car had the automated parking feature. I wasn’t aware that any aspect of driverless technology had been commercialised, which is what led me to have the discussion with both of them. We all must’ve read about Uber testing driverless taxis in Singapore and elsewhere a few months ago. We’ve seen how technology is making inroads in aspects of our lives that we wouldn’t have imagined a few decades ago. I mentioned to both that this could mean widespread shrinking in entire professions, or their elimination. I related it to a book my father had read in the nineties, in which the futurist (I can’t recall if it was Alvin Toffler or someone else) predicted that with increasing advancement in technology, in this century employment will exist for only 20% of the world’s population, while the remaining 80% will have to be supported by them directly or indirectly. A century is a very long time and even though we don’t see this happening anytime soon, who knows what is in store for the world in 2080?

The concern I raised was more in the social dimension. When a person wakes up in the morning without having much purpose or meaning in his or her life, the mind inevitably heads in the wrong direction. Widespread crime will be a problem of unimaginable proportion in literally every society in villages, towns and cities across the world, if this 20-80 ratio (or even 50-50) were to be realised. While the lucky few can protect themselves in ivory towers (conventionally known as gated communities), the reality is that they will need to step out daily. Cars with tinted glass to insulate or protect their occupants aren’t a lasting solution and simply trap us further in those artificial worlds.

Secondly, as parents, we may consume ourselves in supporting our kids in readying them for careers of their choice, but with an ever-evolving technology landscape, the professions of their choice may well cease to exist by the time they’re 40 or even younger.

One friend wasn’t so concerned on the specific example above, because his point (and I agree with it) was that in India we need drivers to park cars or simply drive around till we finish errands on a busy day. Probably, driverless cars will be a reality in countries where driving is a sane exercise. So, young Indian men seeking to make a career based on a driving license may have nothing to fear for the next few decades. But again, technology pervades everywhere and driving is just one profession where it could alter the existing situation.

The following day, while talking to another friend, I mentioned the same case and narrated a situation where I met someone in Australia a good 20 years ago. He was a geologist and in his late thirties. He mentioned that his stepson, who was about 22, was a carpenter who had earned more that the stepfather in the previous year. Coming from India, it was obviously surprising and mildly amusing for me to realise that carpentry pays more in Australia than geology. It struck me later that if the young guy was earning well at such an early age, he would most likely have undergone some formal training and certification in carpentry.

This friend, who’s in the higher education space in India, said that this wouldn’t work in India since a formally trained carpenter, mason or electrician would like to charge more for the same service than an informally qualified one. Both may be equally skilled – one from a trainer in an institute, the other from his father. Again, this is true.

At the same time, if the central govt were to introduce courses in such skills (which most of us consider low end), it would lend greater respectability to them. More often than not, Indian parents aspire for their children to get white collar jobs, when in reality, there is a limit to such jobs. Creating formal courses/diplomas in skills such as carpentry, electrical work, plumbing, farming, etc will attract young students towards them as respectable and formal professions and may well partly address the negative consequences of mass unemployment.